Artificial Intelligence, Simulations, CIPSA, and the Future

Ich bein dein mensh! It’s not a special prompt used in a Large Language Model (LLM) under the Artificial Intelligence (AI) umbrella, but a German movie in the 2020s meaning “I’m Your Man”. 

The movie’s lead character is a highly-educated woman in her forties with no family, or husband, but only “career”. Though initially very hesitant, due to strong persuasion by her supervisor, she had to bring an AI-robot home to assist her in her geological work. Ironically, the robot went on to become her perfect lover! 

The robot looks exactly like a young man (human lookalike), very charming, understands her perfectly and never gets angry – unlike us, the humans. 

Over time, the AI learns from her likes and dislikes, pleasures and pains, highs and lows as well as cooks for her, brings flowers, dances with her, gives caregiving like medicines, and even makes her sleep. One-day the woman falls in love with the AI, and in fact, demands it from the AI-robot. 

When I watched the movie, I kept on thinking:

Can this happen? Is it even possible?

In this article we will explore simulations which are already there and sometimes they go beyond reality as with AI. We also explore AI’s impact on our lives as well as management considering various aspects. I’ll include many examples, including the ones from the CIPSA framework.

First let’s take an example of a map to understand simulations and AI.

Map to GPS to Simulation 

A paper map simulates space. It presents a static simulation of geography. It's a symbolic abstraction of terrain, borders and mountains. A map informs about the terrain, but is not the terrain itself. 

A GPS goes further. It provides dynamic – not static – simulation by guiding us in real time. It tells where to turn left or right, when to stop, or have an alternate route based on traffic condition. A GPS shapes how we perceive and travel in space. 

Now, AI systems such as driverless cars simulate the cognitive process behind space exploration. It not only tells us how to get somewhere, but where to go, or why it matters. It can factor in our curiosity, context, and our personalized goals.

So, in short: 

A map simulates geography. A GPS simulates navigation. But AI simulates decision-making. 

It’s shown in the below figure.  

In a driver-less car, the decision-making is based on the rider’s habits and likings. In other words, there is a human in the loop (HITL) and it may change the route of the car based on the rider in the car. The simulation in AI shifts from external space to internal cognition. 

Now, as a management professional and leader, you would be wondering:

• How does this fit into traditional or agile management?
• Can it be applied in various fields, e.g., Scaled Agile?
• How can it help us?

Let's take an example of tasks and Scrum board using the CIPSA certification. 

Task to CIPSA Board to Simulation

A task simulates work. Whether it’s a CIPSA Sprint Backlog or individual Team Sprint Backlogs, a task or list of tasks will always be there. It's also applicable in traditional project management.

Now, consider yourself as the Principal Scrum Master (PSM), one of the key roles in CIPSA. You would be adding tasks into a schedule using MS Project (Agile) or other software tools. But the task (or activity) is not the work itself. When resources execute that task or a list of tasks, then only the actual work gets done. 

A physical or digital board, on the other hand, simulates coordination and/or collaboration. 

For example, when the CIPSA team puts tasks as cards on a CIPSA Scrum or Kanban Board (see here), it simulates coordination and collaboration among the individual Scrum teams. This integrated board has various workflow states across individual Scrum or Kanban teams. 

An AI system goes much further in simulation. 

It can simulate a part of your cognitive process and can be a companion. It not only can assist the PSM, the Chief Product Owner (CPO), or the CIPSA team in breaking a story into tasks, but also in anticipating bottlenecks, quickly informing resource overallocations, and how to resolve them. 

So, in short: 

A task simulates work. A CIPSA board simulates collaboration. An AI system simulates cognition. 

You may call it a PSM-Copilot as it simulates certain cognitive aspects of a PSM. It’s shown in the below figure.

From Manualization to Autonomous

The work that we do in our personal or professional lives can be simple, complicated, or complex. Almost all of us take the help of machines or tools in our daily lives. The usage of machine/tools can be low, medium or high. Overall, it can take four forms:

• Manualization: Low on complexity, and low machine use. For example, caregiving.
• Augmentation: High on complexity and still low on machine use. For example, brainstorming with an AI tool.  
• Automation: Low on complexity, but high on machine use. For example, report generation which is completely automated. 
• Autonomous: High on complexity and high on machine use. For example, driverless cars. In fully autonomous cars, humans are not at all needed. 

This is shown in the below figure. 

As shown in the above figure, we have four aspects, but with nuances. 

Manualization usually is low in complexity and machine use. However, in certain areas of manualization, we require a high degree of emotional understanding. For example, the manual work needed for cutting a tree and caregiving are not the same. Caregiving is low-tech, but high-touch.

When the complexity goes up, but we still need human touch to get the work done, we have augmentation. Here the machines enhance our ability to do the work. We have many such examples:

• Brainstorming,
• Planning (some aspects),
• Estimation (story points as can be used in CIPSA Scaled Agile),
• Resource levelling – also used in CIPSA Scaled Agile.

Automation can occur when the work done is typically of low complexity but with rules applied. It has high machine usage. For our case, we can apply automation in:

• Reporting,
• Processes and adherence to processes,
• Triggering alerts and suggested actions to stakeholders,
• Real-time dashboards, among others.

The final one is that of autonomous, where the decision is completely machine driven and the work is of high complexity. Taking some examples, we can have:

• Driverless (autonomous) cars,
• Pilotless planes,
• Drones for monitoring,
• Autonomous drug discovery etc.

Meaning of Being a Human

We humans are no way perfect – in fact, far from it. We get disappointed, get angry, and have frustrations. At the same time, we fall in love, have kindness, and show genuine empathy. 

We humans grieve and cry when someone near and dear to us passes away. Because we truly feel so. And that’s what makes us human – not just natural intelligence, which animals also have to a certain extent. For example, elephants and dolphins display a few aspects of human-level intelligence!   

Remember our opening story? 

The AI-robot does all the above, or at least pretends! It pretends to empathize, pretends to care, and does the acting of forgiving or being in love. The AI-robot can mimic our human emotions, too.  

The AI-robot is not only learning from us, with us, and by us, i.e., the humans, but trying to be us. It is the perfect lover as the opening story goes, or the perfect human! 

But then it’s not human. It doesn’t possess many human-like in-born qualities or human-like emotions. 

AI doesn’t feel on its own. It’s programmed to feel. AI doesn’t show real emotions. It’s programmed to show. For us humans though, it comes naturally from birth. From birth, we humans are conscious – not programmed. 

However, in some countries AI robots using human clothes and shorts are seen playing with children, and children are seen as enjoying such companions. It may bring in a completely new generation in the future where robots may be perceived as humans or at least no less than humans. This indeed leads to simulated lives and living. 

A Conclusion?

For this article, and perhaps for the first time, I’ve no conclusion as I don’t know where or how it ends! 

Current Gen-AI tools are useful in areas as I explained with our CIPSA example, e.g., building tasks, estimating story points, or resolving over-allocations. 

But the direction for AI seems to be in another way as informed with the previous example of AI robots pushed onto children. The kids are being programmed to think AI as humans and live in a simulation.

In such cases, the boundary between reality and simulation is no longer blurred or invisible. It has ceased to exist.  

So, where does it lead us?

• Will AI replace us humans?
• Will AI do all the jobs done by portfolio, program, or project managers?
• How many of us sit with Agentic AIs in a CIPSA Daily Scrums which mimics us and then replaces us?
• How will a PSM or CPO coordinate among the Agentic AIs? How many humans in the loop (HITL) will be there? 
• When is that expected to happen?

As said earlier, these are uncertain, but the current path taken by some organizations is leading to that direction. 

For now, I’m certain about a few things. For example, AI can’t procreate on its own, though there are quite a few attempts to manipulate it.  

So, is our future about complete AI with a few humans? Also, what about the previous questions to managers and leaders? 

Your thoughts and comments are welcome.

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This article is dedicated to the memory of my father, the late Harendra Nath Dash, who passed away seven years ago on June 11, 2019. The world moves forward by people who give, not by people who take. He gave a lot and changed many lives, but took very little back. 

This article is free to read, learn, and share. It’s a tribute to him and his teachings.

References

[1] Certified In Practical Scaled Agile (CIPSA), by ManagementYogi.com

[2] Agile and Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Three Cs of a User Story and Three Cs of a Prompt, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.

[3] The Future of Project Management: PMBOK 8th Edition with Artificial Intelligence, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.

The Anatomy of a Benefits Register in Program Management

Just as deliverables are to projects and strategic objectives are to portfolios, so too are benefits to programs! I keep on saying: 

Project delivers. Program coordinates. Portfolio decides.

In other words, a project produces deliverables, a program coordinates for benefits and a portfolio decides on components – determining which to start, stop, suspend, or resume to meet strategic business objectives of an organization.

Benefits may be delivered individually by specific program components or realized collectively through integrated work orchestrated by the program manager. It is the program manager’s responsibility to ensure these benefits are realized in a timely manner. 

Now, irrespective of your desired certification – whether Portfolio Management Professional (PfMP), Program Management Professional (PgMP), or Project Management Professional (PMP) – it pays to understand the concept of benefits and benefits management.

In particular, it’s crucial for program management when you pursue the Program Management Professional (PgMP) certification. 

In fact, there is a dedicated performance domain (PD) called Benefits Management. This directly maps to various phases of the Program Life Cycle Management PD. In addition, there is a distinct principle (PR): Benefits Realization.

 

Benefit and Benefits Register

Benefit is the gains and assets realized by the organization and other stakeholders as the result of outcomes delivered by the program. 

Simply put, the essence of benefits is to capture gains. 

Next, the benefits register collects and lists the planned benefits for the program. It’s the repository where in which benefit profiles are recorded for each benefit. 

One can’t identify all possible benefits at the outset for a program as there can be unplanned, unexpected and/or emergent benefits. However, Benefits Register being the central repository is a powerful tool in Program Management.

The Anatomy of a Benefits Register

Did you notice that I informed about benefit profile, which is recorded in the Benefit Register? A benefit profile is a description of the benefit (to be delivered by a program), its intended beneficiaries, and criteria for its realization. 

When you complete a profile for each benefit, it helps in analysis and planning. 

A benefit profile description includes:

• What part - what the benefit is?
• Who part - who is the benefit is for?
• When part - when the benefit is intended?
• Why part - Why we need the benefit?
• Categorization - the Benefit's categorization
• Criteria for Measurement – Metrics/measure and to determine benefit realization.

Each benefit profile will become a part of the Benefits Register. This in turn supports the Benefits Management Plan (BMP).

Benefit Profile

In the below figure, I’ve outlined a benefit profile which will give an understanding of the benefit’s attributes and measures. The reference for it taken from the Project Management Institute (PMI). 

As noted earlier, this benefit profile will be recorded in the Benefits Register and will used throughout the program life cycle, though it’s first created during Benefits Identification stage.

Sample Benefits Register

Now, you’d thinking how does a Benefit Register look like? I’ve already provided a sample in a previous article of Benefit Management in Project (see here). This is replicated below.

I’m going to expand a bit more on it to have the below Program Benefits Register.

As I expand on Benefits Register with the categorization and attributes, I’ve the following representation. In the real-world program management, one can maintain a spreadsheet, e.g., XLSX file. 

The previous table is continued below. I’ve kept the first column of Benefit ID below for continuity.  

Did you notice the entry of key stakeholders above? 

This is because benefits are fundamentally about gains realized by the beneficiaries (or stakeholders). 

Elements of Benefits Register

Next, let’s go through the elements of the above Benefit Register. Do note that the Standard for Program Management (SPgM) only informs about the Program Benefits Register, not the Benefit Profile!

• Benefit ID – The benefit identifier, which uniquely identified the benefit.
• Benefit Label (Name) – The name of the benefit.
• Benefit Description – The illustration of the benefit.
• Benefit Categorization – The category to which a benefit belongs to. One a benefit can belong to multiple categories!
• Benefit Owner – The person or group who will own the benefit.
• Expected Timing – This can be divided into two, i.e. Start Date and End Date. This informs when the benefit is expected to be delivered.
• Mapping – Mapping of planned/expected benefits to the program component(s). 
• Risks – The risks assessment of the benefits and probability of achieving the benefit.
• Dependencies – Dependencies for the benefit.
• Assumptions – Assumptions associated with the benefit.
• Metrics – The metrics needed to measure the benefits.
• Target Value – The target value of the benefits – preferably quantifiable.

I’ve not added all the fields in the spreadsheet shown above, e.g., Risk Probability. Each program benefit should be assigned a risk probability. Indeed, several factors can drive the probability. For example, the number of components needed to realize the benefit can be one of the factors. 

Taking another example, one of the attributes can be the status or progress indicator for each benefit. This also can be added to the above spreadsheet. 

The depth and breadth of attributes will determine the intensity with which you – the Program Manager – will track the benefits coming from the program components. 

In Summary

In my earlier linked article, I’ve informed about Benefits Management Plan being used in the PMP certification. 

A number of PMP certified professionals pursue PgMP certification. When you go for the Program Management Professional (PgMP) certification, the Benefits Register is one of the key artifacts to know along with:

• Program Benefits Management Plan,
• Program Benefits Management phases (multiple ones),
• Program Benefits Map,
• Program Principle – Benefits Realization (a distinct principle), and
• Program Performance Domain – Benefits Management (a dedicated domain). 

That's quite a few! Isn't it?

However, when you follow and prepare with ManagementYogi’s courses and/or books, you’ll learn them not only in-depth, but also in a practical manner. You're also going to remember them. 

References

[1] Benefits Realization Management for Projects, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.

[2] Portfolio Management - Benefits Dependency Map, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.

[3] The Standard for Program Management, by Project Management Institute (PMI).

Program Management Demystified – What It Is and What It’s Not

  

Program management is often misunderstood as simply “managing multiple projects”. In reality, it is a strategic discipline focused on managing related initiatives to achieve broader organizational outcomes leading to benefits aligned with strategic objectives. 

Unlike project management, which zeroes in on delivering specific outputs or deliverables within the defined constraints of scope, schedule and cost, program management connects the dots among the interrelated group of projects, subprograms and program activities – known as program components. 

A program aligns its components with business goals, manages interdependencies, and ensures that the combined value exceeds the sum of individual efforts. In fact, in the Standard for Program Management (SPgM), there is a principle (PR): Synergy.

The Synergy PR explicitly tells this: we create more than what is possible/achievable by a program’s individual component parts.

In this article, we will know more on Program Manager and act of doing so – Program Management. I’ll try to remove many misconceptions and will follow the same pattern as used in CIPSA course – What It’s and What It’s Not.

I'd also suggest that you read this article in combination:

Decoding A Program – What It Is and What It's Not

Now let's dive-in.

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1. Not only Knowledge and Skills, but also Principles.

Program management is not only the application of knowledge and skills, but also principles.

For the first time, in the NEW Standard for Program Management (SPgM), PMI has added a number of principles which permeates across various performance domains. Yes, knowledge and skills are needed to perform program management. However, principles are equally important. 

For example, there is principle of Governance, which is a must-have in order to manage programs effectively. 

2. Not only a Manager, but also a Leader.

The program manager is both the manager and leader of the program.

As the SPgM notes and I quote verbatim:

"Program management is led by a program manager, who is the person authorized by the performing organization to lead the team or teams responsible for achieving program objectives."

You, the Program Manager, are the leader of the program. Make no mistake about it. However, leadership and management are not the same. To know more leadership, you can read this comprehensive article. The prior linked article is about project managers, but many aspects will be applicable to Program Managers, too. 

3. Not Just Traditional, but also Agile.

While planned benefits' delivery in phase-based manner is well-understood, program benefits can also be delivered in an Agile mode.

Programs can have phase- or gate-based approach to deliver the benefits. One can also deliver the benefits in an Agile mode. 

For the planned/target benefits to delivered in Adaptive mode, the approach is to deliver in an increment manner, i.e., we get incremental benefits. In Agile approach, iterations are typically used and incremental benefits are given at the end of every iteration.

Agile at Scale framework, such as Certified In Practical Scaled Agile (CIPSA), can be used for incremental delivery. 

4. Not only Vertical, but also Horizontal. 

Program managers look at both the aspects for communications – vertical and horizontal. 

When I say both vertical and horizontal areas of program, there are many aspects to it.

As a Program Manager, you have to provide solid horizontal and vertical communications with the stakeholders. Another aspect is horizontal coordination with other program managers under the same portfolio, but also vertical support for the top leadership. After all, a program should be strategically aligned. 

5. Not a Politician, but Politically Savvy.

A program manager is not a career politician playing politics, but should be politically savvy showing sensitivity to diverse interests.

Your job is that of a program manager, not of a politician. Many don't touch this aspect of politics, but I certainly will! A number of organizations have too much political climate, where rarely anything gets done, other than playing politics. This is one of the key reasons for their failures. 

However, as a program manager, you need to be politically savvy. You need to be politically aware and pay close attention to the interest of the program stakeholders – especially stakeholders with high power, interest, and influence. However, you've to act with integrity. 

6. Not only Benefits, but also Strategic Alignment.

Programs delivery benefits taking a number of related components. Programs are also aligned with strategic objectives of an organization. 

Programs are typically initiatives within a portfolio. When a program is initiated a program manager is assigned. It's the job of the program manager to not only deliver the benefits, but also continuously align the program with strategic objectives while being in pursuit of the benefits to be delivered. 

In other words, the benefits and value to be delivered are important to an organization's strategic business objectives.  

7. Not only the Mentor, but also a Facilitator.

Program Managers wear many hats, including those of a mentor and facilitator depending on the context and situation.

A Program Manager (PgM) acts as mentor while ensuring that standards and practices are understood and followed.

Coming to the role of a facilitator, here is an example. Program is a team of teams. But some teams may not be under the direct authority of you, the Program Manager. In such cases, facilitation may be required. 

Note: There is another principle called Team of Team (ToT PR) specifically for program management.

8. Not Managing Operations, but Managing Program Components.

Program Managers don't manage operations, but manage the program itself.

A program manager considers the program elements such as projects, subsidiary program and program related activities. Operations, usually, are not under the scope of the management because operations are ongoing in nature. 

However, operational activities that directly related to a program's components may be considered as program-related activities. This is distinction is very important to know.

9. Not One Governance Body, but Multiple Governance Bodies.

In practice, most program managers have to deal with multiple governance bodies, not just one!

The program management standard talks about approaches, principles, performance domains and practices for most of the programs, most of the times. 

Nevertheless, considering governance, most program managers will have to deal with multiple governance bodies, not just one body. On ground, governance functions are performed through multiple governance bodies. 

10. Not only Top-Down, but also Bottom-Up. 

As a program manager, you've to be familiar with management of both types of programs: top-down or bottom-up. 

In a top-down approach, programs are taken fresh to pursue new goals and objectives. This are usually initiated with a Portfolio. See PfMP Live Lessons – Guaranteed Pass for more details on portfolio and the initiatives within. An example can be an initiation of a program within a portfolio as part of organization's strategic planning cycle.

On the other hand, it's possible that some of the projects are already running and it was decided to run them together as a program. These projects/subprograms have relatedness and interdependencies and hence, they are better managed as a program. 

Again, you – the program manager – have to know both these approaches and how to conduct various program activities in both the cases.

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Summary Table – Program Management 

Conclusion

Program Management is not merely coordinating projects but goes beyond. It’s about creating alignment, enabling strategic execution, and driving long-term value for your organization by delivering benefits.  

Above all, it's applying the program management principles, which are woven with the various program management performance domains. 

When done well, program managers and program management become the bridge between organization’s vision and ground execution with a set of interrelated components. 

As I wrote in the beginning, it’s about synergy–creating more than what’s possible by individual component parts. Indeed, it is!

You may also like:

[1] Guaranteed PfMP Live Lessons Course, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.

[2] Guaranteed PMP Live Lesson Course, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.

[3] Guaranteed RMP Live Lessons Course, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.

[4] Guaranteed ACP Live Lessons Course, by Satya Narayan Dash, CIPSA, CHAMP.